Mid-Season Report on the 2024 Red Sox: Can Fans Believe in This Team?
Robert McMahon, Sports Columnist
Mid-Season Report on the 2024 Red Sox: Can Fans Believe in This Team?
Why my anger and low expectations coming into the season? Where do I begin? Sox ownership has been steadily spitting on fan loyalty by throwing overboard fan favorites like Mookie, Xander, and even beloved announcer Dan Orsillo. Even a fan favorite from last year, a ringer, Kyle Schwarber, wasn’t re-signed. Three last-place finishes in the last four years. And the ownership passed on most free agent opportunities in this past off-season to enhance this team.
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To make all Sox fans feel that things would get better, Sox owner John Henry hired a former journeyman pitcher, and an assistant in the Cubs office from 2019-2023, Craig Breslow, as the Sox new GM. Say what, those Cubs who had a below .500 record and no playoff appearances in that period? Yup. But Breslow does have a degree in molecular physics from Yale. That might come in handy in evaluating free agent sluggers.
Early Season Lineup: Using a “Wheel of Fortune” to Make Out the Lineup
I’ll give any reader of this column, a $50 gift card to the Old Canteen if they can accurately tell me what the starting lineup will be for the Sox game tomorrow. Most of the first 6 weeks of the season, injuries devasted the Sox. Every position has been plagued with injuries, some expected starting players like Trevor Story and Tristan Casas, have rarely left the dugout. The injuries and the letting of go of popular players for lower cost players have left fans wondering daily in March and April, “who are these guys in the lineup?”
Just two years ago, the 2022 starting lineup for most of the season was Christian Vasquez, Bobby Dalbec, Trevor Story, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Jackie Bradley, Kike Hernandez, and Alex Verdugo. Only Devers remains playing on the 2024 Sox team as this column is being written. As of June 1, 2024, the Sox featured at least 22 different lineups. Since then, I have lost count. For the first 6 weeks, it was like a spring training carousel, with the acquisition of new players every week and with Manager Cora trying out different players at different positions.
Early Season Woes: Errors Everyday
With Cora forced to try out different lineups every day, some players played three different positions in March and April. One of the rookie players, Ceddanne Rafaela played shortstop, second base, and centerfield—all in one week. There have been at least five different first basemen this year for the Sox: Tristan Casas, Bobby Dalbec, Garrett Cooper, Rob Refsnyder, and Domenic Smith.
Not surprisingly, the lack of consistent lineups has impacted the Sox fielding. Currently, the Sox lead the MLB in errors with 66. And the resulting discouraging statistic is that the Sox lead the MLB in unearned runs with 52. Those unearned runs were particularly devasting in the first three months of the season when the Sox offense was still trying to figure out how to score runs. Sox pitchers, March through May, were deprived of 6 wins because of unearned runs by the fielders.
The Surging Sox
On May 30th, the Sox record stood at 28-29. Since then, they have compiled a respectable 19-10 record going into a weekend series with the Yankees the Sox record at 47-39. Only a ½ game out of the third wild card position, despite having the most players injured in the MLB. What’s changed and can we believe the Sox will remain competitive the remainder of the season? Let’s look at some positives.
Sox Pitching: Despite picking up only one stud free agent pitcher in the off-season (Lucas Giolito, who went on the IL before the season with elbow surgery and is out for the season), the Sox starting pitching has been pretty decent. Some of the metrics: ERA: 3.57, 2nd in the AL; home runs allowed: 3rd fewest in the AL; base on balls allowed: 3rd fewest in the AL.
Their starting pitching corps—Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta, and Brayan Bello--have been inconsistent recently, but the starting pitching carried the team March through May, and those four have remained mostly healthy. They are now joined by Josh Winckowski to give the Sox a solid five starters. If Garrett Whitlock makes it back off the IL soon, they will have the luxury of 6 quality pitchers.
And the core relievers—Slaten, Bernardino, and Weissert--now established, after several guys floated through the bullpen this season, are dependable. They have 11 blown saves, but most of those came early in the season thanks to errors by the fielders. The closer, the veteran Kenley Jansen, has performed as expected, generally lights out.
The unexpected overperformance of the pitching staff is largely due to new pitching coach Andrew Bailey brought in by Craig Breslow. The pitchers have bought into Bailey’s pitching strategy which is to throw fewer fastballs. Bailey has also limited the number of pitches per game for his starters—generally less than 90 pitches/game. It’s working as the team ERA proves, and the strategy will look even better as the Sox improve their fielding with a more consistent lineup.
Sox Offense: Every Sox lineup in March and April had at least 4 position players who you would characterize as “guaranteed outs.” Bobby Dalbec bounced between Worcester and Fenway several times. He is now back in Worcester. Dalbec is a nice guy and solid on defense, but I hope the Sox have finally figured out that he is never going to hit a major league fastball. The Sox starting lineup still has two weak bats—Valdez at .215 at second base and Domenic Smith at .210 at first base.
But the Sox hitting has gotten better in June. The current team batting average of .254 is second in the AL; runs scored and home runs hit are in the middle of the AL stats. What has emerged, however, is more than better overall team metrics. What has spurred the Sox offense are the following:
The Go-Go Sox. The Sox are second in the AL in stolen bases with 86; only Tampa Bay with 87 has more. Jarren Duran and David Hamilton are pacing the Sox with 21 and 23 respectively. Duran should be given the moniker of Duran Duran after the British pop group, as on multiple occasions, he has stolen 2nd base and 3rd base on consecutive pitches. Duran’s speed and his position at the top of the lineup has been electric and enabled him to be 6th in the AL with 175 runs scored.
Balanced Lineup. Devers is having a fabulous year hitting .288 with 18 round trippers and 51 rbi’s. While he is the hitting stud of the lineup, there’s punch in other lineup spots. Free agent pickup Tyler O’Neil is having a great year with 16 homers, catcher Conner Wong leads the club in hitting with a .323 batting average, and center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela batting at the bottom of the lineup is second on the club with 47 rbi’s.
Duran Duran. Jarren Duran is having a breakout year with 10 homers, 10 triples, 21 stolen bases, 59 runs scored, and 175 total bases so far. Besides his individual numbers, he has inspired other team members to steal bases and his constant threat on the bases has distracted pitchers.
Will The Sox Still be Competitive in September?
At the risk of being over optimistic for this 2024 version of the Red Sox, I think they will still be in the running for a wild card spot in September. The pitching is better than it has been in years, the hitting keeps getting better, errors are decreasing. Most importantly, Alex Cora is right now in the running for manager of the year. Adding a great pitching coach in Andrew Bailey was the best move of the year by GM Craig Breslow.
What to look out for: injuries to key players Devers or Duran; injuries to two or more starters; the front office giving away O’Neil and/or Kenley Jansen at the trade deadline for prospects.