Are the 2025 Red Sox Legit, or Just a Tease?

Are the 2025 Red Sox Legit, or Just a Tease?

 

At the beginning of this summer, I made several firm vows of abstinence—slow down the ice cream intake, drive by any place that serves saugies, and to not follow the Red Sox.  Since 2018, it has been a slow and agonizing decline for the Sox.  Mookie and Xander are gone. The agony of enduring the Chris Sale contract extension years (2019-2023 with 17 wins costing about $8 million/win) with the Sox. And no playoff appearances.

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Despite being a Red Sox fan since 1956, I decided to take a break from the Sox this year and focus on my bocce game, Wordle, recovering from knee replacement surgery, and having a summer with quiet nights filled with restful sleep.

 

And then, the Sox ended the run-up to this year’s All-Star Game break with a 10-game win streak.  A streak filled with all kinds of wins: blow-out wins, come-from-behind wins, some dominating pitching wins, and wins with different guys stepping up each night to hero status.  And the next Pappy emerging in the form of a 24-year-old Ceddanne Rafaela.

 

The Sox, at 53-45, are in third place in the AL East, only three games behind first-place Toronto.  And they have a tenuous hold now on the 2nd wild card spot, their likely path to the playoffs.  Is it time for me to quietly sneak onto the back of the Sox bandwagon and break my vow of abstinence?

 

Let’s see if it makes sense to jump on the Sox bandwagon or not.

 

Five Reasons Why the Sox Won’t Make the Playoffs

 

1. GM Craig Breslow Can’t Be Trusted

GM Craig Breslow has been busy taking on the persona of Monty Hall of “Let’s Make a Deal.”  Some good deals and lots of strange ones.  The Sox needed another bat in the lineup, so in the off-season, Breslow got All-Star free agent Alex Bregman.  So, we started the year with two All-Star third basemen—Bregman and Devers.  Of course, Devers was then traded to dump salary and to relieve the tension in the clubhouse.

Now we hear daily rumors that Breslow is going to trade Jarren Duran, who is having only a modest year after having an All-Star year last year.  Don’t do it, Craig. Duran is the only five-tool player in the major leagues.  He has a bright future.  He can play any outfield position.  His stolen base threat is a huge plus.  Name any other Sox player in the last 30 years who has stolen home plate?

 

2. The Sox Pitching Rotation is One Injury Away from Trouble

Of course, no team ever has enough pitching.  But, what if stud pitcher Garret Crochet (10-4, 2.23 ERA) goes down with an injury for several weeks?  In games that Crochet has started in 2025, the Sox have won 11 of them—that’s 21% of their wins.  Can we trust Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito, who have only recently become reliable starting pitchers, to carry this team?

 

3. Have the Sox Cured the Error Curse?

The Sox are second in Major League Baseball with 77 errors and 60 unearned runs.  The Sox have lost 12 games because of unearned runs—that’s over 25% of their losses.

One explanation for the errors is that Manager Alex Cora has used 47 different lineups this year in the team’s 98 games.  There is a constant shuffling of players among positions.  Injuries are one reason for the shuffling players.  It’s hard to have consistent infield play when four different players have played at first base, five different players have played at third base, and three different players have played at second base.

 

4. Sox Hitting is Inconsistent

The Sox score a lot of runs—5.02/game this year, but this robust figure is skewed by games where they score 8,9, or 10 runs/game.  The reality is that this team does not have a consistent slugger or a consistent .300 hitter. Shockingly, the Sox have scored 2 runs or less per game in 30 of their 98 games played.  In 30% of their games, they have been a relatively easy out.

They can’t win many games scoring 2 runs or less, as their pitching allows 4.42 runs/game.

This is a team that every game starts 5 or 6 first and second year MLB players who are still learning how to hit good pitching.

 

5. The Sox Play in the Toughest Division in the American League and Have a Tough Remaining Schedule

The AL East is the only AL division with four teams with a .500 record or better. The Sox have to play the other three teams in their division 16 games.

More worrisome for the Sox is their remaining overall schedule.  The Sox open their remaining schedule against the Cubs, the Dodgers, and the Phillies—all enjoying very good years.

Of the Sox’s remaining 64 games, 34 of them are against teams that currently boast an overall winning percentage of .571!  They have only 30 games against teams with a current overall winning percentage of less than .500.

 

Five Reasons Why the Sox Will Make the Playoffs

 

1. With Devers Gone, Tension in the Clubhouse is Gone

GM Breslow created the clubhouse problem of Devers’ attitude problem by bringing in a competing third baseman, Alex Bregman.  But he at least solved it by trading Devers to the Giants.  Not surprisingly, there is less tension in the clubhouse.  And not surprisingly, the Sox have played .640 ball since Devers left the clubhouse on June 15th.

 

2. Alex Bregman is Back

Continuing with the “Clubhouse Chemistry” theme, Bregman has returned from the DL and returns without the Devers cloud present in the clubhouse.  Besides his potential offensive contributions, Bregman will solidify the infield, reducing the error machine that existed in the first 75 games of the season.

His presence at third base will give pitchers confidence.  His maturity will provide badly needed mentoring to the large number of rooking and second-year players on the team.

 

3. The Middle Relief Pitchers and Closers Are Now in Place

The Sox can’t win with just three quality starters.  Middle relief is critical. Other than Aroldis Chapman being the closer for most of the year, Cora has resorted to a carousel approach to see who would fill the middle innings and supplement Chapman in the closer role.

It has taken 95 games, but there is now clarity with the middle relievers and an additional closer.  The reliable middle relievers to emerge include Greg Wiessert, Garrett Whitlock, Justin Wilson, and Josh Slater.  And Jorge Alcala, who has electric stuff, was acquired from the Twins to provide an occasional day off for All-Star Aroldis Chapman in the closer role.

 

4. Catcher Carlos Narvaez Has Emerged as a Key Player

The Red Sox no longer have to put up with the weak-hitting, sure-out Connor Wong, who began the year as the starting catcher.  Second-year MLB player Carlos Narvaez, whom the Sox stole from the Yankees, catches five of every six games and is hitting a solid .273 with 8 dingers and 31 RBI’s.  More importantly, he has developed an excellent relationship with the Sox pitchers and is partially responsible for the success of the starting pitchers in the last month.

 

5. The Sox Offense Is Able to Win Games in Different Ways

As previously mentioned, the Sox have no dominant hitters.  They do, however, have a very versatile lineup.  They actually have four players who are on pace to hit 25-30 homers this year:  Story, Abreu, Raefela, and Bregman (if he remains healthy).  The Sox have not had that slugging balance in a while.

The Sox get on base.  They have 11 players with an on-base percentage above .300.

The Sox create runs with stolen bases.  The Sox have 83 stolen bases so far this year.  The “go-go Sox.”  Yup.  They are 4th in the AL swiping bases with Duran, Hamilton, Rafaela, and Story all on a pace to steal 25-30 bases.

The addition of Bregman and Yoshida in the everyday lineup will take some pressure off the five rookies and second-year guys who start most games.

 

Are the Sox A Playoff Team?

Last year at this time, the Sox were 53-43 and managed to swoon after the All-Star game and end up 81-81 and no playoff selection.

The Sox have a chance this year to finish with 90 wins, which should be enough for a wild card spot. To get to 90 wins, they need to win half of their 34 games with the teams currently with a winning percentage above .500, and to win 2/3 of their 30 games against the teams currently with a losing record.